Who is the most likely candidate to win the presidential elections in Argentina? That’s what the polls say

(CNN in Spanish) — The surprise scenario captured after the primaries in Argentina, called PASO in that country, where right-wing economist Javier Miley leads the two-thirds platform, began to rearrange itself after the first impact, according to polls analyzed by CNN and analysts consulted.

With the August election just over a month away, who is the favorite to win October’s general election? Who are the potential candidates for the runoff?

Before that, let’s review PASO’s numbers: La Libertad Avanza received 29.8% of the votes, followed by Together for Change with 28% – split between Patricia Bullrich (16.81%) and Horacio Rodríguez Larreta (11.19%), and finally the Union for the Fatherland. Sergio Massa (21.43%) and Juan Grabois (5.85%) received 27.3%, according to the final tally.

The photo from that day cannot necessarily be viewed in the future. First, because internal party elections have been held and there is no guarantee that those who voted for the losing candidate in one seat will vote again within the same party.

According to a recent study by the Latin American Strategic Center for Geopolitics (CELAG), nearly 16% of voters do not know whether they will return their vote, and more than 2% are determined to change that vote.

But the rate of absenteeism was also record, and the historical trend is increased participation in general elections.

Javier Miley, favorite: Strengthens his leadership and grows

The consensus among pollsters and analysts is complete: Javier Miley is the favorite to win the general elections in October, although, according to measurements, he is unable to win the first round and will have to go through a runoff.

With an intention to vote of at least 33%, according to Sillage, an economist who defines himself as “liberal” grows by about four points, compared to his PASO score.

Meanwhile, Massa comes in second with 32.2% followed by Bullrich with 28.1%.

The latest poll by Giacobbe & Asociados shows it to be more competitive, at 34% (with 33.9%).

According to Management & Fit director Marielle Fornoni, voters hold the ruling party and the previous government responsible for the current situation in the country and leave the La Libertad Avanza candidate in a comfortable place. “Miley is in the ‘she brought us here’ place,” he explains.

Patricia Bullrich, leader of Together for Change, is more complex

According to Sillage’s measure, which places her in third place with 28% of the votes, Patricia Bullrich is the most uncertain after PASO.

The data coincides with analysts’ opinions.

“It was expected that, even before the primaries, the Campimo party would find it difficult to retain votes among its candidates because the differences they expressed every month before those elections meant that the voters did not identify with each other, adding to the electoral result,” says Federico Aurelio, president of the company. Consultant Aresco Julio Aurelio: “It was not viewed favorably.”

Facundo Nijamkis, director of Opina Argentina, sticks to the same line: “The force that suffers most from the flight of votes is ‘Together for Change.’ “Leaving below expectations is always a problem and loses its status as the opposition force with the most votes.” “.

But Giacobbi’s poll presents an opportunity for the PRO leader. According to this measurement, Bullrich is superior to Massa, albeit by a difference that specialists usually call “technical parity”: 27.8% versus 27.4%, respectively.

“Maele and Peronism managed to keep their voters,” Aurelio says. “Bullrich also has his own tools, but Larita’s tools cost him a little more, although he has improved,” he added.

Runoff scenario between Miley and Massa

Presidential candidate for the ruling party, Sergio Massa.

According to the Celage poll, today’s run-off will be between Javier Miley and Sergio Massa. On the other hand, Giacobbi leaves the door open: Miley is guaranteed, but with a difference of only 0.4 percentage points, second place to Bullrich does not seem guaranteed.

Analysts consulted by CNN, Fornoni, Nijamkis and Aurelio lean towards the first scenario, although there is a paradox: Massa has a better chance of entering the runoff, but Bullrich has a better chance of winning it.

But there is a long way to go. On Sunday, the first presidential debate will take place, which is sure to shake the scene once again.