Warning for one of the worst hurricane seasons in the US since records began

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) It issued an alarming warning on Thursday: United Nations They could face one of the worst hurricane seasons on record.

The agency has predicted 17 to 25 tropical storms, of which 8 to 13 could become hurricanes, and 4 to 7 could become major hurricanes, reports said. The Washington Post. A decrease in the mixing and occurrence of warm temperatures in the Atlantic Ocean boy Suggests a “higher” year.

Overall, NOAA sees an 85% chance of above season averages. This would be the eighth season in the past ten years to surpass the average number of storms recorded between 1991 and 2020. Fox Weather.

Matthew Rosenkranz, NOAA’s lead hurricane season forecaster, explained that the waters of the tropical Atlantic are “dramatically” warmer than they were 19 years ago, already reaching typical August temperatures. Besides, Storms are intensifying three times faster, new research suggests Compared to previous decades when approaching the coast.

Global warming, driven by man-made greenhouse gases, is one of the main reasons for this trend. Every mega-storm triggered by global warming strengthens the evidence Increased hurricane risk.

This year, in addition, is a change from El Nino girl For the heart of hurricane season, like 2005, it was a feat. This natural change favors tropical activity in the Atlantic, creating more favorable conditions for the development of storms. According to Ken GrahamDirector National Weather Service“All the ingredients are definitely ready for an active season.”

The NOAA forecast is consistent with others released by meteorologists. For example, the Colorado State University It predicts 24 tropical storms and five major hurricanes. Likewise, the Meteorological Office Britain is forecasting 22 tropical storms, with a chance of equaling the record of 28. However, a more worrying forecast has arrived University of PennsylvaniaIts scientists expect 33 named storms, which would set a new record.

Cyclone season begins on June 1, and conditions are expected to be favorable for these systems to intensify in August and September. Surface temperatures in the tropical Atlantic are currently 1 to 2 degrees Celsius above normal, providing more energy for tropical storms to form.

Besides, La Niña can reduce the so-called wind shearThis makes it easier for storms to organize into rotating systems with defined eyes and violent winds.

The effect of global warming not only allows larger storms to form during the season, but also encourages the rapid increase in intensity of these storms in specific areas such as the western Caribbean Sea.

A recent study shows that a growing number of tropical cyclones around the world have experienced “extreme” intensity, with sustained winds of 92 kilometers per hour or more in 24 hours.

Recent studies have shown that storms are rapidly intensifying in coastal areas America and East Asia, a phenomenon caused by decreased wind shear and increased humidity as land warms faster than oceans.

In fact, some storms were so severe that it was suggested that they be considered a Category 6 hurricane. Saffir-Simpson.

Karthik BalaguruAt Climate Scientist Pacific Northwest National Laboratory And the study’s lead author noted that given how favorable the environment is for the development of tropical storms, these trends could translate into greater coastal risks this year.

Even during the quiet season, the most powerful storms can intensify so quickly that communities have only two days’ warning before a major hurricane hits.

In addition to the number of storms, NOAA also uses the Accumulated Hurricane Energy (ACE) Index to measure the combined intensity and duration of all named storms. The forecast for this year ranges from 150% to 245% of the average value.

NOAA officials and Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) They urge residents to start preparing now to avoid being caught off guard by considering evacuation routes, medical needs and pet safety.

“You can’t wait for the storm to appear because you won’t have time. You must be preparedGraham warned.

Last year was one of the least impactful seasons for the US in a decade, with only one hurricane making landfall. Florida. However, regardless of whether hurricane season is predicted to be active or quiet, meteorologists stress that being prepared is essential.

“If you live on the coast, you should be prepared to be hit by a hurricane and it only takes one“, he said Britta MerwinMeteorologist Fox Weather. “It doesn’t matter if it’s a high or low performance year. “If it hits you, it’s going to be the worst hurricane season you’ve ever had.”