‘To recover from a 12-year drought, it is not enough to have a normal year, not even two’

In conversation with your new DNA, Roberto Rondanelli, Researcher at the Center for Climate and Resilience Sciences (CR) 2 and Academician in the Geophysics Department of the Faculty of Physical and Mathematical Sciences of U de Chileto delve into these phenomena and other climatic details that can cause disasters and emergencies without adequate preparation by the authorities.

“generally, Forecasts are divided into weather and climate, both of which are different‘, began the expert, who also emphasized that temporal investigations are usually very accurate.

Regarding climate predictions, the academic also explained that “there is a problem in science, and it is We don’t know much and the tools don’t allow us to see what will happen with a great deal of certainty“.

There are two levels of expectations, and it’s not a good idea to get confused. In one, we’re very successful in the sense that we can predict the weather very accurately, but when we go to predict the weather, whether the season is rainy or cold or whatever, we generally try not much. good,” he announced.

“In fact, the Met Office, for example, expected the year to be fairly normal to a drought, which so far is normal in many parts,” Rondanilli said.

New front system for the north-central region

The expert also touched on the possibility of creating a new frontal system for the central region of the country before the end of winter, and before that was confident: “It is very promising.”

“Towards the end of the forecast, another system was once again seen that would leave precipitation in the north-central region of Chile again. As the forecast progresses with the days, the uncertainty decreases.”

Regarding the drought that the country has experienced for more than a decade, the academic stated, “People under the age of 12 or 14 have not seen a normal winter day in Santiago. This would be one of the heaviest rains.”

“we We have been through 12 years in which the falling water has not been normal, it has been less than usual with very dry years like 2019 and 2021 (…) To recover from a 12-year drought, it is not enough to have a normal year, not even two.”

“We have to have several normal years and even some years above normal so that the water that we lost during the massive drought can somehow be restored,” Rondanelli said.

“Part of the mega-drought has a natural component and another part of climate change (…) and that means that Mega dehydration must necessarily have a counterpart at some point where we change the cycle and go to normal or higher than normalHe predicted, at the same time he mentioned about the rain that “we should see Santiago again sometime during this decade, and hopefully the years will be much higher than usual.”

“We have solid forests, forests, in short, a series of ecosystems in the central region, which were greatly affected by the massive drought, and One can expect these ecosystems to take in the water and germinate again in the above-normal years, and begin to recover‘ asserted the researcher.

summer in the southern hemisphere

He was asked about the heat wave that hits Europe as a result of a A mass of hot air coming from the desert And how likely it is that a similar phenomenon will occur in the southern hemisphere summer, the expert from the Center for Climate Sciences emphasized that “again, it’s hard to tell.”

“What we know is that step by step Climate change is warming, rising temperatures and heat waves are becoming more frequent. We experienced an extreme heat wave during the summer of 2017 that broke all the temperature records we set in the central region, and this was the season of massive fires,” he recalls.

“Being prepared for these kinds of things is important, not in a disaster situation, but being prepared for when these heat waves happen, we know what we have to do.we can preserve the ecosystems, so that there are no wildfires,” Rondanelli fixed.

“But what will happen, I don’t know if it’s this summer or next or another, We’re going to break the records we set in Santiago again“And this is what they are witnessing now in Europe. They have broken very long records, they have never seen temperatures before this week,” he explained.

Finally, with regard to the forecast of rainfall for the next week, the researcher explained that “Thursday or Friday, we’ll be able to tell if another system is coming, but things are looking good for a rainy winter.”, concluded the researcher from the Center for Climate Sciences.