They’re spotting a powerful tropical wave leaving Africa: what do the long-term models predict?

The National Hurricane Center (NHC, in English) Thursday began observing a tropical wave near the islands of Cape Verde, West Africa, which in the past few hours has been producing several areas of rain and erratic thunderstorms.

This morning the agency gave it a 0% probability of a cyclone developing in 48 hours (two days) and 20% in five days.

meteorologist Lee Ann English Cyranowho works in National Weather Service (SNM) in San Juan, explained that for now, this system appears to be “very robust,” but that it will face weather conditions that will hamper its development, if any, in the short term.

“Right now, (this tropical wave) looks very strong, but it will mix with a little bit of it desert dust On the road”the expert noted in a telephone interview.

But What do the long-term models expect about this system?

In fact, global models Global Forecasting System (GFS) and the European (ECMWF) It was suggested early this morning that this system would develop circulation and thus acquire some form of cyclonic development by the first week of July. However, the calm that prevails in Puerto Rico, for the time being, is that the system will pass to the south of the island and there will be thunderstorms and strong winds over the Caribbean waters.

This projection was confirmed by Inglés Serrano, who cautioned, however, that there is a week left before the tropical wave passes near the area, so the projection could change.

“Based on what is now expected, if it does develop, it will still be a little bit in the south of the island. This is a week of expectations so you can change the picture and we have to keep watching. If it passes through the south, it may show an increased chance of precipitation across the region. “It’s not going to be anything that gets us out of the drought or fills the reservoirs, because we need something closer to the area, but it’s a relief,” the meteorologist said.

The forecast is long-term, so it’s too early to suggest what rainfall estimates the island will receive.

“We were talking about it passing near the area this weekend, not the other one”English Cyrano said.

In its short discussion, the NHC explained that the system may have a chance of gradually developing hurricanes starting early next week as it moves west at 15 mph.

“We know that, climatically speaking, these are the typical tropical waves we start to see in July and they scare us. But the tropical waves in July tend to be fast moving and can affect their growth.”pointed English Cyrano.

Currently, weather conditions in the tropical Atlantic are favorable for the development of tropical cyclones: winds blow at 15 to 20 knots (17 to 23 mph), allowing circulation to stabilize; There is divergence in the upper atmosphere and convergence at the surface, which means that the environment can cause atmospheric pressure to drop.

For now, the NHC will continue to provide discussions about this system on a daily basis.