How will El Niño affect the US in winter and what is expected?

(CNN) — Fall has just begun, but it’s never too early to look forward to winter, especially since it will be quite different from recent years due to El Nino.

This winter will be the first to feel the effects of an event that has a significant impact on climate during the coldest months of the year.

El Niño is one of three phases of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation, which records changes in water temperature in the equatorial Pacific Ocean that have effects on weather patterns around the world. An El Niño phase occurs when these ocean temperatures are warmer than normal for an extended period of time.

El Nino started this year In June, This winter is expected to be strong According to the Climate Prediction Center of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), the fry will last until at least early next spring.

La Niña, its colder counterpart, has caused the last three U.S. Winters contributed greatly, with parts of the west receiving heavy rainfall while the south remained dry. Much needed ice.

The Climate Prediction Center’s first winter forecast has many of the characteristics of typical El Niño winters that predict changes to come.

What will this northern winter be like?

No two El Niño winters are alike, but many have common temperature and precipitation trends.

One of the main reasons is the position of the jet stream, which usually moves south during El Niño winters. According to NOAAThis change usually brings a wetter and cooler climate in the south, while the north becomes drier and warmer.

Because the jet stream is essentially a river of air through which storms flow, storms often move south during El Niño winters. More storms mean more rain, usually from the southern plains to the southeast. This could be important for states like Texas, Louisiana and Mississippi. Drought affected.

A combination of colder weather and more frequent precipitation may increase the chances of winter precipitation such as freezing rain, sleet and snow in the south.

El Niño typically brings mild winters in the north, from the Pacific Northwest to the Rockies, Plains, and Midwest. Isolated storms that produce episodes of extreme cold or heavy snow may develop in these areas, but they are rare.

That would be bad news for the Midwest, which is facing severe and exceptional drought, and for the snowpack in the Pacific Northwest. An important source of water to the region.

Winter El Niño patterns are less common in California, the Southwest, and the Northeast.

The frequency of storms and increased precipitation in parts of California and the Southwest depends on the global strength of El Niño. A strong El Niño could bring more storms, rain in low-lying areas, and snow in high-lying areas, while a weaker version could dry out the Southwest.

El Niño winters lack well-defined expectations in the Northeast. Overall, the region may be milder than its northern counterparts, but may also be at the mercy of strong coastal storms moving up the Atlantic coast.

A look back at recent El Niño winters can help you imagine what next winter might bring:

• A weak El Niño during the 2018-2019 season featured several notable storms, with one storm breaking out in December. Snow and ice From Texas to the Carolinas. There was also a season The wettest winter on record According to NOAA, temperatures were above average across the continental United States and much of the East.
• A very strong El Niño event contributed to the winter of 2015-2016 Warmest winter on record In the continental United States, according to NOAA. The warm winter didn’t prevent major snowstorms, including one Deadly snowstorm East Coast travel has been disabled.
• The winter of 2009-2010 was the last with an El Niño event of similar intensity to that expected this year. was Very cool According to NOAA data, the southern and central United States and the East Coast will have the most moisture and snow. Season classified Many blizzards It hit the northeast.