These are expert predictions about the weather in the United States.

The Great Lakes region is expected to be wetter than normal, leading to more snow. The rest of the country, for its part, faces medium or warm and dry winters.

The NOAA forecast is for the period between December 1 and February 28, and is not for the astronomical winter (which begins on December 21, 2024 and lasts until March 20, 2025), and is based on the expectation that a La Niña pattern will develop. . This natural pattern of ocean and atmospheric circulation affects the jet stream Usually sends winter storms to higher northern latitudes And the southern states are drier and hotter than average.

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NOAA experts say there is a 60% chance of La Niña forming in late November and a 75% chance of forming in January. But the predicted La Niña does not appear to be very strong, making predictions difficult.

“Given its fragile nature […] “We have less confidence, and some of the impacts may not be as broad,” John Katzczak of NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center told a news conference, adding that in a weak La Niña pattern, the jet stream’s position could change and produce severe weather more often than strong ones.

Rising global temperatures due to the climate emergency are expected to affect winter.

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“Winter, for many reasons for us, It is a fast warming station“said NOAA climate scientist Tom DeLiberto. “Looking at the types of long-term patterns, the signal for winter is clearly warming.”

The system could encourage or further intensify drought conditions in southern states including Arizona, New Mexico and Texas, which are expected to see relatively warm and dry periods. Drought conditions are not expected to be pronounced in California, and if a strong La Niña develops, the northern part of the state could receive above-average rainfall.

“More than a quarter of the landmass of the continental United States is currently in at least moderate drought,” said Brad Buck, drought operations lead for NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center. “Outlook for Winter Precipitation Don’t expect widespread relief“.

He US Drought Monitor The continental US puts that percentage even higher, and estimates that 45% are already facing at least moderate drought. About 68% of the High Plains states — North and South Dakota, Nebraska, Kansas, Colorado, and Wyoming — are in moderate drought or worse.

In the West, strong storms have already started bringing snow to the mountains. A storm forming in the Pacific is expected to bring heavy snow to the West and Rockies this weekend.

According to National Weather Service forecasts, they could fall Up to 40 inches (101 cm) of snow In the highest reaches of the San Juan Mountains in Colorado.