Mexico and the September 19 earthquake: an “unpleasant coincidence”

(CNN Spanish) – It shook again in Mexico on September 19, a date marked by tragedy and horror: three tremors shook the country on the same day in 1985, 2017 and now this 2022. The probability of a repeat of this exists but is very low and according to scientists who highlight the importance of opening new lines of research in This connection in order to provide “appropriate” answers.

a 7.6 magnitude earthquakeThe epicenter was in Michoacan, strongly felt in Mexico City on Monday, September 19, 2022, about an hour after rehearsals for the two other major earthquakes that killed thousands in the country’s capital, in 1985 and 2017.

Earthquakes are a common phenomenon in Mexico, as the country is in a “high seismic” zone, according to the National Seismological Service (SSN). But after Monday’s shock, the question many are asking is, How likely are three earthquakes on the same date? Scientists have answered this.

unpleasant coincidence

“The probability is very low, but it is not impossible” explained Scientist Victor Hugo Espindola, chief analyst at SSN at the National Autonomous University of Mexico (UNAM), on the relationship that could exist between the three earthquakes greater than 7 on the Richter scale that occurred on the same day. in different years.

“If we see the entire seismic catalog that we have since the early twentieth century, we see that earthquakes larger than 7 have been repeated in different months, for example, we see several earthquakes in December, and many in other months, then certainly the probability of occurrence of That same day is too weak.”

Luis Quintanar Robles, a researcher in the Department of Seismology at the UNAM Institute of Geophysics, agreed that there is no scientific certainty that earthquakes occur on the same day.

“What we can say is that earthquakes generally occur when there is a release of pressure generated in an adjacent area,” Quintanar explained.

Espindola described it rather as an “unpleasant coincidence” and National Seismology Wrote On Twitter, this is exactly a coincidence.It is worth opening new lines of scientific research. This should be done seriously and methodically. In science, new questions require appropriate answers.”

On September 19, 1985, an 8.1-magnitude earthquake caused severe damage to hundreds of buildings in Mexico City and thousands of people lost their lives. 32 years have passed without any other earthquake causing deaths and economic losses to the millionaire even On September 19, 2017when an earthquake of magnitude 7.1 was felt in Morelos, Puebla, Mexico City, the state of Mexico, Guerrero and Oaxaca.

The total number of deaths in 2017 was in the hundreds (the official figure is 369), while about 250 thousand people were affected, more than 180,000 homes were damaged by the two earthquakes, and of these, 50,610 were damaged in total.